Exports, which reached a record $1.26 billion in 2007, have become the driving force of Nicaragua's economy, overtaking remittances and foreign aid, according to economist Francisco Mayorga.

In his recently published work “Nicaragua 2010: the Future of the Economy,” Mayorga says that skyrocketing fuel prices, a demand for biofuels and increased agricultural productivity have driven Nicaragua's export growth, which spiked 16.5% last year. And it appears small and medium-sized producers are set to benefit from Nicaragua's export boom.

Mayorga's claim contrasts with another study, “The Exported Nicaraguans” by Douglas Carcache, which asserts that emigrants themselves – by way of their remittances back home – are Nicaragua's greatest, fastest-growing “export.”

Mayorga, chief economic strategist who designed Nicaragua's transition to a market economy in 1990 and now heads the Managua-based Albertus Magnus Institute, says the goods the country is exporting outweigh the worth of money back from emigrating citizens.

Even amid a U.S. recession, he predicts, commodity prices will remain high for several years and help to fuel Nicaragua's export growth, which he expects to exceed $2 billion by 2010.

“The agricultural sector in Nicaragua is picking up very quickly,” Mayorga told The Nica Times in an interview.

Read Friday's The Nica Times, an eight-page publication of The Tico Times, for more about economist Francisco Mayorga's predictions.