By James Bosworth
As with much of Central America, security is the top issue in Guatemala. However, voters in that country won’t see much of a difference between the two candidates in the second round of the election, scheduled for Nov. 6. Their choice is between tough and tougher – two candidates who have promised “mano dura,” or “iron fist,” policies to confront gangs and organized crime.
Guatemalan frontrunner Otto Pérez Molina.
AFPOtto Pérez Molina is a former general who is running on his military experience as proof he will defeat the violence. Manuel Baldizon is a right-wing populist who has promised a strong offensive and potentially public executions of criminals as a form of deterrence.
What makes this odd is that mano dura policies were attempted just a decade ago and largely failed. In the early 2000s, a string of leaders came to power in Central America promising a strong hand to confront the gang violence head on. They wanted expanded police powers, more arrests, harsher punishments and a social stigma on gang membership.
The expanded police powers led to additional human rights abuses. The increased arrests and harsher punishments led to an overcrowding of the region’s prison systems, often with young men who were not the worst offenders. Those prisons then served to recruit and train new gang members, giving them networks for crime that would prove quite useful once they were released. The social stigma on gang membership made sure that any person who entered a gang had no escape, their gang tattoos preventing them from finding a real job or an alternative to the violent lifestyle on the street.
Crime statistics, while they briefly improved in the initial offensive in some areas, ended up worsening across the decade. Central America is now far more violent than a decade ago. Mano dura was a failure in the early 2000s. So what brings its political revival in 2011?
The limited alternatives attempted have not worked either. The policies that most experts believe will bring a reduction in violent crime – improved police and judicial institutions, prison reform, youth education and job programs – have been implemented poorly or not at all. Even if they are implemented well, they are slow to take effect and do not provide governments with quick wins that allow them to show success to voters. The policies also require an economic investment by the politically influential upper classes, which up to now have been far more willing to purchase private security guards than pay for effective public security forces.
In Honduras, former President Manuel Zelaya came to power promising a smarter fight against gangs and crime, only to put the issue on the back burner in favor of economic populism that showed more immediate advantages to his base of supporters. In El Salvador, several presidential candidates including current President Mauricio Funes have promised a comprehensive fight against the causes of violence, but once in office, have turned more towards military and police solutions. And in Guatemala, President Álvaro Colom began his term believing that his economic policies would turn into better security policies, but by the end, he has become among the most hawkish of presidents in the region, calling for a NATO-like military force to fight organized crime.
Citizens across the region are demanding results, and rightfully so, as the levels of violence in the Northern Triangle of Central America are among the worst in the world. However, as frontrunner Pérez Molina should know as a former general, leadership cannot be about pandering. Although voters want immediate victory over criminals, a real leader should explain to citizens that there are no quick fixes to Guatemala’s security problems. Mano dura policies may win votes in this election, but they won’t reduce the violence and they will simply push voters to the next quick fix promise.
James Bosworth is a freelance writer and consultant dividing his time between Arlington, Virginia, in the U.S., and Managua, Nicaragua. He writes Bloggings by Boz (www.bloggingsbyboz.com) and was recently named one of the most influential Twitter users in Ibero-America by Foreign Policy Magazine.
